The success of Polymarket and other betting platforms in calling the election will bring an end to the era of political forecasting as we know it.
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President Emmanuel Macron is installing the first government dependent on the far-right in France’s post-war history. But paradoxically, the country may take a step toward ending the risk of a Le Pen power grab.
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The new Assemblée Nationale’s most important task is to adopt an electoral system based on proportional representation. Only then can France’s transition from a presidential to a parliamentary democracy succeed and the far right be kept in check.
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For France, the French president’s snap elections gamble is risky. From a European perspective, running that risk now is irresponsible.
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If Emmanuel Macron’s party botches the European elections in June, the French president will lose control of his three remaining years in office. Thus, he is doing what he does best: putting on a big show.
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With populists Left and Right threatening to storm the Élysée, can the center hold?